1. Choose the stock first. There is no point
buying a warrant just because it is cheap, unless
it is for an arbitrage trade.
2. Gather all the analysis relating to the
warrants on that underlying asset for comparison
(newspapers is a good source).
3. Choose the strike: In, At or Out of the
Money. Deep In-The-Money warrants can be traded at
low premiums or even discounts, but offer very low
gearing. Far Out-of-The-Money warrants provide
good effective gearing.
4. Check the warrant premium relative to its
strike.
5. If several warrants are available on the
same underlying asset, compare their implied
volatility. The idea is to buy the warrant with
the lowest implied volatility as it is the
cheapest but only if it satisfies the other
criteria like time to maturity and gearing.
6. Choose the one with the best liquidity if
implied volatility are at similar levels. However,
a more liquid warrant may be traded at a slightly
higher implied volatility than a thinly traded
warrant. In this case, it might be worthwhile to
pay a few extra points for volatility as it
enables investors to buy and sell effectively in
good size, in tight spread situations.
Low Premium = Cheaper Warrant?
There is sometimes a misperception amongst
investors that low-premium warrants are always
cheaper and more preferable than those with high
premiums. But this is not always correct since low
premium often associates with more In-the-money
and lower gearing. The premium is not the only
parameter to consider for warrants valuation.
Higher premium can be associated with higher
gearing and does not necessarily mean that the
warrant is more expensive than one with a lower
premium but also a lower gearing.
Premium is used as a measure of how much the
underlying has to move in the favourable direction
in order for the warrant to break-even at expiry
date. It does not connote any measurement of value
or cheapness.
Investors should keep in mind that the major
reason to buy a warrant instead of buying a stock
is to have leverage. Thus a low gearing warrant is
meaningless and should not be considered unless it
is trading at a large discount.
Professional or more sophisticated investors
very often prefer to buy at-the-money or
out-of-the-money warrants, in which there is no
intrinsic value. This allows them to use a smaller
outlay to gain the same exposure as they would get
from in-the-money warrants.
In order to efficiently choose from several
listed warrants on the same underlying with
similar terms, investors should compare implied
volatility besides premium and gearing. If the
warrants have similar term structures, the one
with the lowest implied volatility offers the best
value. Of course, investors should also consider
the warrant's trading liquidity and the issuer's
credit rating as well as their own risk appetite
to determine what strike, maturity, gearing, and
premium are most appropriate.
In-the-money or out-of-the-money warrants?
In-the-money warrants have a lower leverage
than out-of-the-money ones and are therefore less
risky. They will perform less if the underlying
share price moves in the right direction but will
lose less value in case of unfavourable move, as
shown in table below.
The table below shows the simulated behaviour
of ATM, ITM and OTM call warrants if the share
price rises or fall 10%.